EMMANUEL PETER ADAYEHI
Précis
As Nigeria commemorates 26 years of uninterrupted democracy, the moment presents a dual reality: real gains in civilian rule coexist with persistent structural weaknesses that continue to weaken democratic quality. Using the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) Democracy Index 2024 as a benchmark, Nigeria remains a “Hybrid Regime” with a score of 4.16/10, ranking 106th out of 149 countries. This paper reviews Nigeria’s democracy and leadership landscape under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu in 2026 through three lenses: (i) the state of democracy in 2026, (ii) leadership and governance challenges, and (iii) the future of national unity and democratic consolidation. I argue that Nigeria exhibits traits of competitive authoritarianism as defined by Levitsky and Ziblatt, where democratic institutions are formally maintained but systematically tilted to favor the incumbent.
1. Theoretical Frame: Competitive Authoritarianism
Levitsky and Ziblatt define competitive authoritarianism as regimes in which formal democratic institutions exist, but the playing field is skewed through abuse of state resources, biased media, and selective legal enforcement. Schedler’s concept of electoral authoritarianism adds that elections occur, but are manipulated to ensure incumbent advantage. Nigeria’s 2026 landscape aligns with these frameworks: elections are held, opposition exists, but mechanisms 1.4 below show systematic narrowing of contestation. This frame moves the analysis beyond description to explain _why_ formal democracy coexists with declining quality.
2. State of Nigerian Democracy (2026 Outlook)
Delivery-Year Dynamics
In Nigerian political time, 2026 functions as a delivery year—a period in which the ruling administration is expected to show tangible results before the 2027 election cycle. Public debate centers on governance capacity, economic performance, and security outcomes rather than purely electoral ritual.
Political Structure: Civilian rule with democratic fragility
Nigeria has sustained uninterrupted civilian government since 1999, with public discourse in 2025 framing this as “26 years of unbroken democratic governance”. However, continuity does not automatically translate into high-quality democracy where political competition, governance institutions, and rights protection remain pressured by corruption and politicized institutions.
Electoral Environment: ritual elections vs credible governance
The EIU framework treats democracy as more than elections, evaluating electoral process and pluralism alongside governance functioning, participation, political culture, and civil liberties. Public concern focuses on voter indifference, political violence, money in politics, and institutional credibility.
Rise of One-Party Tendencies: Shrinking Competitive Space
Across states, political alignment patterns are narrowing the competitive space through three mechanisms consistent with competitive authoritarianism:
1. Defections to the ruling coalition: High-profile defections have accelerated ahead of 2027. Former Ondo State Governor Olusegun Mimiko’s move to the APC in May 2026 was framed by party stakeholders as strengthening “political inclusion”. In Rivers State, Governor Siminalayi Fubara’s defection from PDP to APC prompted APC chieftain Tonye Cole to note that both now compete on “equal pedestal” within the ruling party. These moves consolidate resources and patronage under the incumbent coalition.
2. Local election dominance: APC primaries in May 2026 showed lopsided results. In Kwara State, aspirant Rafiu Ajakaye polled 1,551 votes to the incumbent’s zero in Ipee ward. In Yagba Federal Constituency, Rep. Leke Abejide swept all 34 wards with margins of 1,120 to 5 votes. Such margins indicate near-absence of intraparty competition.
3. Judicial and party management of opposition cases: Courts are prioritizing accelerated hearing of political cases in line with INEC’s timetable. While reducing delays, this limits procedural time for opposition challenges. Combined with “consensus” arrangements, opposition actors face institutional and procedural constraints.
Table 1: EIU Democracy Index Scores for Nigeria, 2023-2024
Category 2023 Score 2024 Score Change
Overall Score 4.23 4.16 -0.07
Electoral Process and Pluralism 4.92 4.67 -0.25
Functioning of Government 3.21 3.00 -0.21
Political Participation 4.44 4.44 0.00
Political Culture 4.38 4.38 0.00
Civil Liberties 4.41 4.41 0.00
Source: Economist Intelligence Unit, Democracy Index 2024
The declines in electoral process* and functioning of government* drive Nigeria’s overall regression, consistent with competitive authoritarian dynamics where formal rules are maintained but implementation is biased.
Table 2: APC vs PDP Governorship Control, 2023-2026
Year APC States PDP States Other Parties
2023 21 13 2
2024 22 12 2
2025 23 11 2
2026 24 10 2
Source: INEC Gubernatorial Election Results and Party Defection Reports, 2023-2026
The net gain of 3 states by the APC through elections and defections illustrates the gradual contraction of competitive space.
3. Leadership and Governance Challenges
Economic reforms: hardship-delivery gap and counter-arguments
Tinubu’s government pursued subsidy removal and fiscal stabilization, which initially increased inflation and cost of living. The governance challenge is reform timing, sequencing, mitigation, and communication legitimacy.
However, some analysts point to early positive indicators. S&P upgraded Nigeria’s credit rating to ‘B’ in May 2026, citing improved external position and growth prospects, and forecast the current account surplus to rise to 5.8% of GDP in 2026. The agency noted increased oil production to 1.65 million barrels per day in 2025 and the operational scale of the Dangote refinery as drivers. APC Chairman Nentawe Yilwatda argued that handling 1,092 ocean-going vessels in Q1 2026 reflects “increasing commercial confidence”. These views hold that reforms, though difficult, are laying foundations for macroeconomic stability.
Security crisis
Insecurity in the North-West and South-East continues to pressure executive decision-making and public trust. Where security capacity lags expectations, democratic health declines.
Legislative performance
The National Assembly faces criticism for extensive recess periods and prioritizing election preparations over oversight and budget discipline, weakening executive accountability.
Leadership need: from survival politics to stewardship
Analysts describe the challenge as moving beyond “looting into poverty” toward strategic, selfless, institution-building governance requiring competence, integrity, and inclusive national unity politics.
4. The Future of the Nation
2027 election prelude
2026 is defined by early maneuvering: party realignments, coalition building, and disputes over candidate selection. If democratic legitimacy erodes, elections risk focusing on power capture over public-centered governance.
Economic prospects
Projections anticipate moderate GDP growth in 2026, dependent on policy consistency. The central question is distribution: who benefits, how quickly, and whether mitigation systems reduce harm.
Role of youth and Gen Z
Youth participation is rising through digital platforms, but the test is whether this translates into influence over party structures and governance appointments.
Unity and stability
Long-term prospects depend on strengthening institutions, ensuring equity in delivery, and reducing ethnic and religious polarization.
5. Evidence Anchor: EIU Democracy Index 2024 Category Breakdown
Nigeria’s overall score of 4.16/10 places it in the “Hybrid Regime” category. As shown in Table 1, the declines are concentrated in electoral process and functioning of government. This pattern fits Schedler’s model of electoral authoritarianism: elections are held, but the institutional environment undermines their competitiveness.
Conclusion and Testable Claim
As of May 2026, Nigeria’s democracy exhibits competitive authoritarian traits: formal institutions persist, but the playing field is increasingly tilted. Consolidation requires reversing the decline in electoral process and functioning of government scores.
Testable claim for Dec 2026: If APC controls 25 or more states and opposition parties win less than 15% of National Assembly seats in the 2027 prelude elections, then Nigeria will have crossed into a dominant-party system with minimal effective competition.
Policy recommendation: To avoid this, INEC should enforce stricter regulations on party defection timelines and consensus candidacies, and the National Assembly should pass amendments mandating transparent party primaries monitored by civil society. Without these steps, the 2027 election risks becoming a ratification exercise rather than a competitive contest.
Works Cited
Economist Intelligence Unit. (2024). Democracy index 2024: What’s wrong with representative democracy? https://www.eiu.com/n/
Jatula, V. (2024). Democratic deficit and underdevelopment in Nigeria: A qualitative study of the 2023 presidential elections. _Journal of African Elections, 23_(1), 74–92. https://doi.org/10.20940/JAE/
Levitsky, S., & Ziblatt, D. (2018). _How democracies die_. Crown Publishing.
Nkwede, J. O., Azizah, A., & Nwankwo, C. (2025). Nigerian democracy: The paradoxes. _Journal of Humanities and Social Policy, 11_(5), 155–172.
Schedler, A. (2006). _Electoral authoritarianism: The dynamics of unfree competition_. Lynne Rienner Publishers.
Punch News. (2026, May 17). S&P upgrades Nigeria’s credit rating to ‘B’ amid reforms. https://punchng.com/sp-
Vanguard News. (2026, May 14). Mimiko’s move to APC ‘ll strengthen political inclusion, participation – Council. https://www.vanguardngr.com/
Vanguard News. (2026, May 16). APC Reps tickets: Protests, violence, disqualifications mar primaries. https://www.vanguardngr.com/