PAUL DADA
No one can say with 100 per cent certainty who will win the presidential election. The best we can do is speculate. But if Bola Tinubu is re-elected, it will largely not be because he has convinced the majority of Nigerians that he has performed exceptionally well.
Rather, it will be because the opposition lacks serious strategy, cohesion and political sagacity. It will also be because developments within the opposition parties have not demonstrated that they are any better than the ruling party, at least for now.
Truth be told, if the election were based solely on how well this administration has tackled insecurity, inflation and whether its reforms have positively impacted ordinary Nigerians, Tinubu would probably be preparing to leave Aso Rock. Sadly, however, nothing from the current opposition has been convincing enough to show that it can govern the country better.
Below are some of the problems I see within the opposition.
1. A sorely divided opposition bedevilled by selfish interests
Tinubu might not be President today if the opposition had closed ranks in 2023. In that election, each of the three leading candidates won 12 states. If you combine the votes of Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi, they exceeded Tinubu’s total.
The same scenario is repeating itself in the current political dispensation.
If Atiku and Obi were to join forces, Tinubu’s path to victory could become much more difficult, assuming he wins at all. Atiku is popular across much of the North but less so in the South. Conversely, Obi enjoys considerable support in the South but is less popular in the North.
Some may argue that Rabiu Kwankwaso, as Obi’s running mate, would strengthen the ticket in the North. However, Kwankwaso’s political strength is concentrated largely in Kano State. Atiku, by contrast, commands a broader following across the region.
Personally, I do not think Atiku should be contesting, not because he is morally worse or less competent than Tinubu or Obi. Rather, I believe that, in the spirit of fairness, the presidency should remain in the South until 2031. Atiku’s candidacy is a major spoiler for the opposition.
2. ADC, APC and NDC are tainted triplets
You can accuse the APC of imposing candidates on its members. You can also accuse it of harbouring many corrupt individuals. You may not be entirely wrong.
However, there are also allegations of corruption and candidate imposition within the ADC and the NDC. Moreover, many prominent figures in both parties are politicians who previously belonged to the APC, PDP or other parties and who themselves carry baggage from the past.
It remains to be seen whether Nigerians will choose a party that is openly flawed or one of several others that present themselves as morally superior while exhibiting many of the same characteristics.
3. No meaningful solutions being offered
Whenever I listen to opposition politicians, and I listen to them often, all I hear are complaints. Of course, they have every right to criticise the government. That is part of their job.
What I rarely hear, however, is a clear explanation of how they would do things differently. You say the President has failed. Fine. We have heard that repeatedly. But tell Nigerians what your alternative is.
In fact, this is the very least a serious opposition candidate should do.
Consider Kemi Badenoch in the United Kingdom. Whether you agree with her or not, she consistently criticises the ruling Labour Party while articulating what she believes should be done differently. One may disagree with her positions, but it is difficult to argue that she and the Conservative Party are not providing a robust opposition.
It is also disingenuous to argue that Obi or Atiku should keep their strategies secret because the ruling party might “steal” them. If the ruling party is as incompetent as critics claim, it cannot simply steal a good idea and make it work. Even if it attempts to do so, successful implementation is another matter entirely.
To argue that the opposition cannot reveal its plans for fear of imitation is, in many ways, an unwitting indictment by its own supporters.
4. Outrage at scrutiny of opposition candidates and baseless accusations against critics
In 2023, Obi was arguably the luckiest candidate in the race. He benefited from a large organic support base whose members did not require financial inducements to back him.
Many Nigerians were frustrated by the Buhari administration and were also sceptical of Tinubu, who had played a significant role in Buhari’s emergence. Yet many Obidients appeared to believe that the best way to support Obi was to abuse, insult or bully those who questioned him.
Little effort was made to win over the North, where Obi struggled to gain traction. Yet the North remains home to some of the country’s most committed voters.
In the current political climate, many Obidients appear unchanged. Anyone who criticises Obi or raises legitimate questions is quickly labelled a bigot, particularly if the person is Yoruba, even when they are not supporters of Tinubu.
By this logic, an Igbo person who supports Obi is a patriot, while a Yoruba person who does not support him is a bigot. That is reasoning turned upside down.
This attitude makes the movement appear more divisive and risks alienating people who might otherwise have been persuaded through reasoned engagement.
Ask some supporters what Obi is doing to expand his appeal in the North and you may receive insults rather than answers.
Only yesterday, I asked a young commercial motorcycle rider from Kano whom he would vote for. He said he would vote for Kwankwaso. When I informed him that Kwankwaso was not running for President and was instead Obi’s running mate, he appeared confused and somewhat disappointed.
Perhaps this illustrates that Obi has yet to gain deep support in parts of the core North.
Conclusion
The last time I voted in Nigeria was, I believe, in 1999. I do not vote partly because I am usually working on election days. Even if I had voted in 2023, however, I would not have supported Tinubu, Obi or Atiku. At the time, I did not believe any of them represented what Nigeria needed.
Nevertheless, I am a realist. Whatever my personal views, I recognise that Tinubu, Obi and Atiku remain the most serious contenders ahead of 2027.
While I do not intend to vote, I will continue to analyse and scrutinise them, regardless of whose supporters may be offended.
And I will continue to tell people: live and let live.