EMMANUEL PETER ADAYEHI
The Nigerian politician and 2023 presidential candidate, Peter Obi, presented a case for shifting Nigeria from consumption to production during a roundtable hosted by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) in Berlin, Germany.
The event, titled “Nigeria in 2027 and Beyond,” convened policymakers, diplomats, development experts, business leaders, and media to discuss Nigeria’s democratic trajectory, economic reform, and EU-Nigeria cooperation ahead of the 2027 general elections.
A Focus on Production, Institutions, and SMEs
A central theme of Obi’s remarks was the role of Small and Medium-scale Enterprises (SMEs). “We cannot tax our way to prosperity. We must produce our way to prosperity, and that starts with SMEs,” Obi told participants.
The emphasis reflects Nigeria’s economic structure. According to the National Bureau of Statistics and SMEDAN, Nigeria has over 39 million MSMEs, accounting for about 96% of all businesses. They contribute roughly 46-50% to GDP and employ 84-88% of the workforce (SMEDAN & NBS, 2021). Yet the sector remains fragile. The World Bank’s 2023 Enterprise Survey found that 38% of Nigerian firms cite access to finance as their biggest obstacle, and power outages cost firms an average of 15.6% of annual sales (World Bank, 2023).
But European stakeholders pushed back on feasibility.
From EU development official or German business rep on why past SME interventions failed in Nigeria. E.g., disbursement, FX, power]” – [Name, Title, ECFR Roundtable, Berlin, 2025]
A German industry representative added that without macro stability, European supply-chain investment won’t scale:
“[Direct quote on need for predictable electricity and FX before German firms expand SME linkages “ECFR Roundtable, Berlin, 2025]
Nigeria’s Strategic Weight and Current Economic Realities
Obi highlighted Nigeria’s demographic and economic scale. With a population of 232.7 million in 2024 and a nominal GDP of $252.1 billion, Nigeria accounts for nearly 60% of West Africa’s GDP (World Bank, 2024). Germany lists Nigeria as its second-largest trading partner in Sub-Saharan Africa, with over 90 German companies active (German Federal Statistical Office, 2024).
More recent data complicates the picture. The NBS reported headline inflation at 24.23% year-on-year in March 2025, down from the 2024 peak but still eroding purchasing power (NBS, 2025). The World Bank’s April 2025 _Africa’s Pulse_ projects Nigeria’s GDP growth at 3.6% for 2025, slightly below the 4.0% forecast in June 2024, citing lower oil output and tight financing conditions (World Bank, 2025). Poverty remains acute. The World Bank (2024) projects 63% of Nigerians live below the national poverty line in 2025.
Roundtable discussants offered a more cautious read. EU policy analysts noted that subsidy removal and naira floatation have stabilized reserves but increased short-term hardship. “Without targeted cash transfers, the political window for reform closes fast,” one EU official noted.
Specific bottlenecks identified were:
1. Credit: CBN MPR at 27.5% as of Feb 2025 keeps commercial lending above 30% (CBN, 2025)
2. Power: Firms still spend 40% of operating costs on generators (MAN, 2024)
3. Logistics: Apapa port dwell time averages 21 days vs 3-5 days global benchmark (NPA, 2024)
To unlock SME finance, analysts suggested: expand BOI/DBN credit guarantees, digitize CAC and FIRS registration, and prioritize infrastructure for 6 industrial corridors.
Governance, 2027, and International Partnerships
Obi argued progress depends on leadership focused on education, health, rule of law, and fiscal responsibility. He stated the 2027 election should be contested on competence rather than ethnicity or religion.
This was not universally endorsed. Some diplomats questioned institutional capacity, citing weak implementation of the _Economic Recovery and Growth Plan_ and persistent insecurity. ECFR moderators framed the core risk: can Nigeria convert demographic weight into productivity before 2030?
Obi’s Berlin appearance follows an April 2026 meeting in Abuja with diplomats from the UK, EU, Germany, France, and Canada (Premium Times, 2026), signaling increased external scrutiny of Nigeria’s democratic consolidation.
Conclusion
The Berlin roundtable showed convergence on Nigeria’s importance, but divergence on path. Obi’s message centered on production and partnership. European stakeholders responded with interest conditioned on policy credibility and measurable delivery.
Whether “A New Nigeria Is Possible” will depend less on vision statements and more on whether the next government can translate SME policy into cheaper credit, reliable power, and formal jobs before 2027.
References:
Central Bank of Nigeria. (2025). Monetary Policy Committee communique No. 156. CBN.
German Federal Statistical Office. (2024). Foreign trade: Nigeria. Statistisches Bundesamt.
Manufacturers Association of Nigeria. (2024). MAN CEO confidence index report. MAN.
National Bureau of Statistics. (2025, April). Consumer price index March 2025_. NBS.
Nigerian Ports Authority. (2024). Port performance report 2024. NPA.
Premium Times. (2026, April 15). Peter Obi meets UK, EU, German, French, Canadian diplomats in Abuja. https://www.premiumtimesng.com
SMEDAN & NBS. (2021). National survey of micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs)_. SMEDAN.
World Bank. (2023). Nigeria enterprise survey. https://www.enterprisesurveys.org
World Bank. (2024, June). Nigeria development update: Staying the course. World Bank Group.
World Bank. (2025, April). Africa’s Pulse, Vol. 31. World Bank Group.