EMMANUEL PETER ADAYEHI
Who is Robin Hood?
In English folklore, Robin Hood is portrayed as an outlaw who “robbed from the rich to give to the poor.” The moral claim was redistribution for equity and justice.
In Nigeria 2023-2026, critics argue we have the opposite: a “Robin Hood in Reverse” system. Bola Ahmed Tinubu Policies that increase costs for the poor through subsidy removal and weak services, while contract awards and forex benefits are perceived to concentrate among connected elites.
The Tinubu Administration: Policy by Subsidy Removal, Not Production
1. The Subsidy Removal Regime – May 2023
On May 29, 2023, fuel subsidy was removed with limited targeted palliatives or mass transit alternatives in place at launch.
Result:
– Inflation: NBS reported CPI peaked at 34.19% in June 2024. Food inflation was 40.87% in the same period [NBS].
– Real wages eroded. The new minimum wage of ₦70,000 was approved in July 2024 but could not cover transport and food in most cities [NLC].
– Fiscal space remained tight. DMO reported 97.3% of FGN revenue in H1 2023 went to debt service [DMO]. Revenue from subsidy savings was not yet transparently linked to measurable increases in power, health, or education outputs in budget performance reports [Budget Office, 2024].
This created a “cost-push” burden on households while delivery lagged.[Presidency][2023][2024]
2. Governance, Procurement, and Public Perception
Public trust was affected by delayed accountability processes and large contract awards during austerity. Examples discussed in media and civil society reports include:
– Office of the Chief of Staff: Questions were raised in public discourse and by CSOs regarding constituency project tracking and transparency. No comprehensive independent audit was published as of 2024.
– Federal Ministry of Works: Awarded large road projects including the Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway. Analysts and CSOs questioned procurement timelines, cost per km, and environmental review processes [SERAP, 2024; MAN, 2024]. Meanwhile, trunk roads in the South-East and North-Central remained in poor condition, raising concerns about prioritization.
The perception: adjustment costs were nationalized, while benefits from contracts appeared concentrated.[BudgIT][2024]
3. Security and Infrastructure Failures
– Insecurity: ACLED recorded over 8,000 conflict-related fatalities in 2023-2024 [ACLED]. Mass casualty incidents continued in Jos, Plateau State; Benue State; Zamfara; Katsina [UNICEF, 2023; HRW, 2024]. Major corridors including Benin-Asaba and Benin-Ore highways reported repeated kidnappings and road deterioration, increasing logistics costs and food prices [FRSC].
– Roads & Power: Grid generation averaged ∼4,000-4,500MW* for 200+ million people as of NERC Q4 2023/Q1 2024 reports [NERC]. South Africa and Egypt each exceed 40,000MW with less than half Nigeria’s population [World Bank, 2023]. Manufacturers cited 30-40% higher costs due to diesel dependence [MAN]. Bad roads increased post-harvest losses estimated at 40% for perishables [FMARD].[2024][2023]
4. International Reputational Impact and Investment
International media coverage in 2023 focused on two issues: the release of U.S. court documents from a 1990s Chicago case, and questions regarding academic records from Chicago State University [Reuters, 2023; CSU, 2023]. The administration provided responses through legal counsel and press statements.
Impact: Regardless of legal outcome, perception matters. NBS reported FDI inflows of $1.15B in 2023, among the lowest in 20 years [NBS]. Investor surveys cited “policy uncertainty, FX volatility, and governance concerns” as key barriers [CBN]. When global headlines focus on personal records instead of economic policy, both direct and indirect investment suffers.[Presidency][2023][2024]
The Alternative Model: Peter Obi and Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso
Nigeria needs retail governance: policy delivered in LGAs and measured quarterly.
The Obi-Kwankwaso Leadership Model is built on the “Bangladesh Test”: literacy, power, and production.
1. Jobs & Economy: Focus on MSMEs, agro-processing, and labor-intensive manufacturing. Targeted goal: 4 million jobs through agriculture value chains and light manufacturing, modeled after Bangladesh’s $39.35B RMG exports in FY 2024-2025 employing 4 million people, 85% women [BGMEA].
2. Education: Task force on ∼20 million out-of-school children. 67% are in the North [UNICEF/UBEC, 2023]. Scale Kwankwaso’s Kano enrollment and adult literacy model with UBEC/SUBEB accountability and counterpart funding audits [ICPC].
3. Health: Rehabilitate PHCs in all 8,809 wards to reduce out-of-pocket costs and improve labor productivity [Obi Campaign Policy Doc, 2026].
4. Power & Energy: Target +10,000MW in 4 years from ∼4,000MW baseline. Proposed mix: gas, solar, and embedded generation with transparent PPPs [Obi Campaign Policy Doc, 2026].
5. Transportation & Agriculture: Prioritize trunk roads: Benin-Ore, Jos-Bauchi, Makurdi-Lafia. Connect farms to markets. Position uncultivated land as a productive asset: “We can make more money from agriculture than oil” [Obi Campaign Policy Doc, 2026].
6. FX & Gas: Unify exchange rate, end round-tripping. Expand gas supply chain for power and industry. Use domestic resources for domestic production first [Obi Campaign Policy Doc, 2026].[2025][2023]
This model prioritizes data, service delivery, and measurable outputs over patronage.
Limitations & Costing of the Proposed Model
For academic rigor, the following must be noted:
1. Funding: The +10,000MW target requires an estimated $12B – $15B at ∼$1.2M – $1.5M per MW for gas/solar mix. Proposed funding mix: PPP 60%, FG capital + multilateral DFIs 30%, green bonds 10%. This has not been detailed in a public financing plan [World Bank, 2023; AfDB, 2024].
2. Party Capacity: The NDC is a new platform. Its grassroots structure, funding, and ability to build a legislative coalition are untested at federal level.
3. Execution Risk: Kano’s out-of-school rate was still 39.2% as of 2022 [UBEC]. Scaling state programs nationally faces different fiscal and political constraints.
4. Data: Some 2024-2025 figures used here are projections. Final NBS, NERC, and DMO data may revise outcomes.[2022]
Conclusion
Bangladesh chose literacy, electricity, and exports [Robertson, 2012; Studwell, 2013]. Sudan chose fragility.
The 2023-2026 period reflects a “Robin Hood in Reverse” pattern: costs to the poor rose quickly, while measurable delivery in jobs, power, and education lagged, and public trust was weakened by perception of elite protection.
For 2027, Nigerians must choose retail over ritual. Leadership should be measured not by press statements, but by megawatts added, children in school, and jobs created.
The corridor is narrow. The time is now.
References
ACLED. (2024). Nigeria Conflict Data 2023-2024.
AfDB. (2024). Nigeria Country Energy Profile.
BGMEA. (2025). Export Data FY 2024-2025.
Budget Office of the Federation. (2024). 2024 Budget Performance Report.
BudgIT. (2024). Tracka Report on Constituency Projects.
CBN. (2024). Investor Confidence Survey.
DMO. (2023). Debt Service Report H1 2023.
FRSC. (2024). Road Safety and Kidnapping Incident Report.
FMARD. (2023). Post-Harvest Loss Assessment
HRW. (2024). World Report: Nigeria Chapter.
ICPC. (2023). Corruption in Education Sector Report.
MAN. (2023; 2024). CEO Confidence Index & Policy Position Papers.
NERC. (2024). Quarterly Power Reports Q4 2023, Q1 2024.
NBS. (2024). CPI, FDI, and National Literacy Survey.
NLC. (2024). Minimum Wage Impact Assessment
Obi Campaign. (2026). Nomination Policy Document.
Presidency. (2023). Press Statements May – Oct 2023.
Reuters. (2023). Reporting on U.S. Court Documents and CSU Records.
Robertson, C. (2012). The Fastest Billion.
SERAP. (2024). Petition on Coastal Highway Procurement.
Studwell, J. (2013). How Asia Works.
UBEC. (2022). National Personnel Audit.
UNICEF. (2023). Education in Nigeria Report.
World Bank. (2023). World Development Indicators & Electricity Access Data.