EMMANUEL PETER ADAYEHI, PhD
Introduction
Since gaining independence in 1960, Nigeria has confronted persistent internal challenges rooted in ethnic divisions and conflicting agendas among its founding leaders which initiated a series of power struggles. The Westminster model of government (October 1960 – January 1966) was plagued by corruption, nepotism, and narrow interests, ultimately leading to economic stagnation and societal decay. Such factors fostered a political environment characterized by corruption, insecurity, and military interventions.
The incident involving a Nigerian Air Force C-130 aircraft has intensified regional tensions and raised questions about Nigeria’s leadership under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu. A narrative unfolding that appears almost scripted from Nigeria’s vibrant Nollywood film industry. Nigeria since its colonial independence in 1960—has often been a subject of mockery within Africa due to military coups that set a precedent for subsequent power struggles in constitutional democracy. The Westminster model of government, operative between October 1960 and January 1966, was riddled with corruption, nepotism, and parochial interests, causing economic stagnation and societal decay. These factors contributed to a political climate steeped in corruption, endemic insecurity, and a troubling history of military interventions.
The Story that Didn’t Add Up – The recent incident concerning a Nigerian Air Force C-130 aircraft reveals discrepancies that provoke further scrutiny of Nigeria’s current leadership under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.
1. The Technical Problems Narrative
The Nigerian narrative claims that the aircraft experienced technical problems, necessitating an emergency landing in Burkina Faso. According to the Nigerian Air Force (NAF), the C-130 aircraft en route to Portugal for maintenance made a precautionary landing in Bobo-Dioulasso, Burkina Faso, on December 8, 2025, due to a technical issue. The NAF stated this was in compliance with standard safety procedures and international aviation protocols. However, the Association of Sahel States (AES) — consisting of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger — contradicted this account, describing the aircraft’s entry into Burkina Faso’s airspace as unauthorized and an “unfriendly act.” The AES placed its air forces on high alert and threatened to “neutralize any aircraft” violating their airspace. Burkina Faso’s Minister of Territorial Administration, Emile Zerbo, claimed the landing violated national procedures.
1. The Technical Problems Narrative
The Nigerian narrative claims that the aircraft experienced technical problems, necessitating an emergency landing in Burkina Faso. The governments of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger retaliated with warnings to shoot down any aircraft breaching their airspace. Why this situation raises deeper questions is that if the aircraft was facing a genuine emergency, why did it violate aviation protocols by entering sovereign territory without clearance? The incident was however, interpreted through the lens of West African geo-politics, especially against the backdrop of a thwarted coup in Benin Republic and recent tensions in Guinea-Bissau, presents the C-130 not merely as a technical aircraft but as a military workhorse designed to operate under duress.
2. Route and Authorization Discrepancies
The AES asserted that the aircraft lacked permission to fly over Burkina Faso. While the NAF confirmed an investigation is underway, it did not clarify whether prior clearance was obtained. This lack of clear communication has fueled speculation and mistrust. Yusuf Tuggar, Nigeria’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, confirmed the released of the 11 Nigerian Air Force personnel detained after their C-130 aircraft made an emergency landing, with reports confirming they have returned to Nigeria as of December 11, 2025, though some sources noted the plane itself might still be held as investigations continued.
Yusuf Tuggar the Nigerian Minister for foreign Affairs said that the landing was accordance with ICAO regulations, allowing for emergency landings at the nearest airport. The writer observed that rather thank going to land 100 kilometer in Burkina Faso their were other alternaive availabe airports for emergency landing in Benin city airport Edo State, Ibadan Oyo State, Cotonou airport Benin Republic, Lome Airport Togo and Accra Airport Ghana. Why the choice of Burkina Faso “land of the Upright People”
3. Geopolitical Context and Implications
This incident took place shortly after Nigerian airstrikes in neighboring Benin, targeting personnel linked to a failed coup. This timing heightened suspicions and escalated tensions between AES nations and Nigeria/ECOWAS. The AES countries have distanced themselves from Western allies, notably gravitating toward Russia. They also withdrew from ECOWAS in January 2025. These actions reflect a rejection of external influence and a desire for greater sovereignty.
President Tinubu’s Leadership: Strengths, Weaknesses, and Foreign Policy Objectives
President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s leadership is marked by bold economic reforms and a commitment to regional stability. However, his administration faces significant challenges, including internal security threats and strained relations with the AES countries.
1. Strengths
Economic Reforms: Tinubu’s administration has implemented significant reforms, such as removing the fuel subsidy and unifying the naira exchange rate. These measures aim to tackle fiscal imbalances and attract foreign investment.
Regional Stability: Tinubu emphasizes peace and stability in West Africa, condemning military coups and advocating for democratic governance in the region.
Foreign Investment: He actively seeks foreign investment to stimulate Nigeria’s economy, promoting the country as “open for business” through strategic diplomatic initiatives.
Strategic Autonomy: His foreign policy prioritizes aligning with Nigeria’s national interests.
2. Weaknesses
Internal Security Challenges: Nigeria faces numerous threats, including the Boko Haram insurgency and conflicts between farmers and herders. The government’s response has drawn criticism for being inadequate.
Economic Hardship: Removing the fuel subsidy has led to rising fuel prices and a cost-of-living crisis, disproportionately affecting low- and middle-income earners. Inflation has surged, making basic necessities unaffordable for many.
Strained Regional Relations: Nigeria’s relations with AES countries have worsened, particularly following threats of intervention in Niger’s 2023 coup, perceived as a direct threat to their governance.
Perception of Prioritizing External Engagements: Tinubu’s focus on international affairs over internal security has attracted criticism.
3. Foreign Policy Objectives
Tinubu’s foreign policy is structured around the “4Ds doctrine”: Democracy, Development, Demography, and Diaspora. This framework aims to promote democracy, attract foreign investment, leverage Nigeria’s demographic potential, and engage with the diaspora. His administration has also prioritized economic diplomacy to strengthen bilateral and multilateral partnerships for growth.
Nigeria, the AES, and the Future of West African Sovereignty
The emergence of the AES has complicated the geopolitical landscape of West Africa. The AES countries assert their sovereignty while Nigeria strives for regional stability and democratic governance.
1. Competing Visions
AES: Centers on sovereignty and reducing external influence.
Nigeria: Focuses on promoting regional stability, democratic governance, and economic development.
2. Potential for Common Ground
Despite differences, Nigeria and AES countries share common security threats, such as terrorism. Signs of rapprochement have emerged, including Nigeria’s assistance to Niger during a fuel crisis. Analysts suggest that Nigeria should explore economic incentives to encourage AES states to re-engage with ECOWAS.
3. The Path Forward
To foster collaboration, finding common ground between Nigeria and AES will require dialogue, compromise, and recognition of each other’s legitimate concerns. Nigeria, as the region’s dominant military force, must decide whether to work exclusively through ECOWAS or pursue independent security agreements with AES states to address threats.
Conclusion
The C-130 aircraft incident reveals the intricate power dynamics and conflicting visions in West Africa. President Tinubu faces the challenge of balancing Nigeria’s commitment to regional stability with the AES countries’ aspirations for sovereignty. Whether he can bridge this divide and foster a unified, prosperous West Africa remains uncertain. The questions surrounding the aircraft’s landing, the nature of Tinubu’s leadership, and the potential for cooperation between Nigeria and the AES remain open-ended.