OBI TRICE EMEKA
I fully endorse the coalition. If not for my personal ideology about switching political parties especially since I don’t earn a living through politics and have no intention of contesting any political office, or seeking appointments I would have joined the ADC. (I do wonder if the choice of ADC as the vehicle is a strategy to steal votes from the APC on the ballot by using a name thet sound similar to the APC and will appear before it on the ballot paper).
The fact is, President Tinubu has been politically insensitive, especially to APC members in the South-East. He appears willing to trade away loyal APC members anywhere to secure his 2027 campaign. He has also made appointments based on ethnicity rather than national cohesion despite his symbolic change of the national anthem to reflect national cohesion.
However, it is my political opinion that the coalition is now at a crossroads. I understand the ADC is Atiku’s political strategy, essentially the North’s response to Tinubu, whom they can’t wait to boot out of Aso Rock. But the two main presidential hopefuls within the ADC have serious hurdles they need to overcome if they want to win.
Let’s Take Peter Obi
Peter Obi’s core support in 2023 came from:
1. The middle class
2. Christian communities
3. Idealistic youths
4. Ethnic support from his own group
For Peter Obi to win, these groups must exist in sufficient numbers within a voting population. If you check the areas where he won in 2023, these factors were present. He cleared the FCT and Lagos, which have the highest concentration of the middle class, idealistic youths, and members of his ethnic group. In the North Central, the marginalised Christian populations alongside educated youths voted heavily for him, with the exception of Kogi State. A similar trend appeared in the South-South, where these four groups were also present in meaningful numbers.
In the South-West, except for a few flashes in urban centres where these demographics exist, ethnic loyalty held sway.
Peter’s weakness in 2023 was not INEC, as many claim. Personally, I rate INEC quite highly in 2023. Apart from the IReV transmission issue which dampened perception and credibility, the votes of most Nigerians were largely reflected. Peter’s real problem was his inability to penetrate the North-West and North-East.
A close study of the 2023 results shows that, with the exception of Kaduna South a predominantly Christian area that voted Labour and parts of Toro LGA in Bauchi State (which has a sizeable Christian population), Obi struggled in the NW and NE to penetrate muslim voters. In the North-East, his votes came mainly from Christian communities in Taraba and Adamawa. I’m still unsure why Gombe’s Christian communities didn’t turn up for him.
Meanwhile, the APC and PDP went head-to-head in both zones, while the Labour Party was largely absent. The deduction is simple: the four key groups I listed do not sufficiently exist in those two geopolitical zones.
These conditions remain unchanged. If Peter runs again in 2027 without addressing this reality, he will likely produce the same result as in 2023. The NW is a massive voting bloc, and any candidate who doesn’t fiercely compete there cannot win. For Obi to stand a chance, he must win support in both the NW and NE.
Now, Atiku
As I said earlier, I believe the ADC is a political reaction from the North to Tinubu’s presidency. A Peter Obi candidacy may cause Northern politicians to lose enthusiasm. They might calculate that “four is better than eight.” There is no legal impediment to Peter Obi doing two terms if he wins, while Tinubu is constitutionally limited to just one more. In that context, Northern politicians may prefer to wait and position themselves for 2031.
For Atiku, the presidency is a lifelong ambition. 2027 may well be his last attempt, and he will give it everything he’s got. Remember, politics is personal pursuit. In 2023, Atiku competed strongly in the NW and NE, where he had long-standing political structures and where ethnic and religious sentiments worked in his favour. He defeated Tinubu in several northern states, although the margins were narrow for NW states. In Kano, the Kwankwaso effect gave Tinubu the edge in NW.
Atiku’s major weakness was that many of the traditional opposition demographics—middle class, youths, marginalised Christians, had all moved to Peter Obi. As a result, Atiku did not perform as expected in the South-South, a PDP base, despite strong efforts by PDP governors in that region. The South-East was a no-go area. The North Central largely went with Peter. Ethnic loyalty remained strong in the South-West, with the exception of Osun.
So in 2023, Atiku truly competed in only the NW, NE, and marginally in the NC and SS. Peter Obi competed in the NC, SE, and marginally in the SS. He was a no-show in the NW and NE just as Atiku was in the SW and SE. The APC, riding on party structure and ethnic sentiments, competed across fiercely in the NW, NE, NC, marginally in SS, and swept the SW due to ethnic sentiments.
If Atiku decides to run alone again in 2027, these same limitations will remain. He still won’t penetrate the South. Opposition votes will be concentrated in the NW and NE, with only scattered crumbs elsewhere.
This is why the coalition’s strength lies in presenting both candidates. The problem, however, is who leads the ticket?
Atiku will argue that, due to his age and prior experience as Vice President and constitutional limitations he cannot return to that role.
But here lies Peter Obi’s dilemma: accepting a VP slot significantly reduces his chances of ever becoming President. History in Nigeria does not favour deputy governors or vice presidents succeeding their principals. History is not in their favour
Secondly, public support for the opposition is always strongest when they are in opposition. Once in power, the reality of governance sets in. Supporters become disillusioned. Approval ratings drop. If Obi becomes VP, he risks becoming the face of that disappointment his campaign rhetoric will now be judged by the performance of the administration he serves in- the Osinbajo dilemma.
Four or eight years is a long time in politics. Who knows? By then, today’s teenagers might have become idealistic youths. They might team up with those who lost in 2027 to form a coalition to rescue Nigeria.