DR. BUNMI AWOYEMI
At long last, the masquerade is over. The era of endless fuel-import subsidy, of shadow-markets, of rent-seeking importers shielding themselves behind union banners and bureaucratic apathy — this era has been unmasked. The government of Bola Ahmed Tinubu has done more than signal change: it has imposed a 15% tariff on imported petrol and diesel, and in so doing delivered a decisive blow to the subsidy fat-cats and the import-dependency cartel. But even more boldly, it has placed Nigerian refining — the capacity to refine our own crude and reclaim our petrol‐pump destiny — at the heart of the national industrial project.
It is this second thrust—refinery build-up, self-reliance, export power—that must not be ignored. The announcement that the Dangote Refinery (already the world’s largest single-train facility at about 650,000 barrels per day) is to expand to 1.4 million barrels per day over the next three years is seismic.
The Subsidy Age: Fraud Disguised as Welfare
We have for decades lived under a cruel illusion: that fuel subsidies were a social safety net. In truth, they became a financing scheme for a privileged few. The Downstream Petroleum Products Marketers Association of Nigeria (DAPPMAN) importers, protected behind labour uproar and union threats, kept the system alive. But it was a system of extraction, not emancipation. The subsidies drained the treasury, robbed investment in infrastructure, ensured that Nigeria – the giant of African oil – remained a net importer of refined products.
Compounding the tragedy: the labour movement in the sector — the Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria (PENGASSAN) and the Nigerian Union of Petroleum and Natural Gas Workers (NUPENG) — too often stood silent, or worse, complicit. Whether by failing to push for genuine refining-capacity build-up, or by organising around price-stability demands that masked the real problem of structural dependency, the unions became an arm of the status-quo rather than its challenger.
The Tariff: A Strategic Strike
With the 15 % tariff on fuel imports, Tinubu’s administration has not merely tinkered with policy — it has drawn a red line. This is protectionism with purpose. It is a strategic shield for local refining: those who would import refined fuel instead of refining Nigerian crude must now pay the extra. And by doing so, they either reform or retreat.
But tariffs alone are empty if they do not coincide with capacity. And that is why the refining expansion matters so much.
Refining Re-birth: Dangote’s Expansion and the Industrial Turn
Here is where the narrative turns from ending to beginning. The Dangote Group’s refinery, at 650 000 bpd, was already a national landmark. But now the planned expansion to 1.4 million bpd by 2028 is nothing less than industrial revolution.
What this means:
• The refinery will be the largest single-site refinery in the world, surpassing India’s Jamnagar facility.
• It will support full local refining of Nigerian crude — the era of “export raw, import refined” is being reversed. Dangote himself emphasised this: “We are expanding … from 650,000 barrels per day to 1.4 million barrels per day … this will be the largest refinery ever built at a single site.
• The expansion dovetails with the tariff policy: importation of refined fuel is less attractive, local refining is more viable.
• It signals a shift in industrial philosophy: from rent-seeking imports to value-creation, from subsidy dependence to productive investment.
• As the government’s backing makes clear — the federation will support this expansion (by the words of the Minister of State for Petroleum) because the era of subsidy must end for growth to begin.
In short: the government is not just raising the cost of importation — it is raising the capacity of national production. The two act in concert.
Unmasking the Union Paradox and Reclaiming Labour’s Purpose
This refining turn also changes the role of labour fundamentally. PENGASSAN and NUPENG can no longer be limited to protesting rising pump prices or railing against “unjust” deregulation. They now have a constructive project: full local refining means jobs, skills development, technical training, opportunity. Indeed, Dangote declares that over 85% of the workforce in the expansion will be Nigerian.
The labour leadership can reclaim its moral high ground — not by defending subsidy, but by defending industrial employment, technological training, repairing the value chain and championing local ownership. The union agenda thus must shift from consumption politics to production politics.
The Moral and Economic Re-birth of Nigeria
When reading history, we will mark this moment as the hinge: a nation that exported crude and imported fuel now building the refinery to process its own. A nation that subsidised consumption at the expense of industry now incentivising production. A people that watched parameterised scarce fuel gasped under the ember months now might face seasons with no scarcity, thanks to local refining.
And behind the numbers — 1.4 million bpd, thousands of jobs, billions in exports — lies something bigger: dignity. Economic dignity. The right to refine our own crude, to provide our own fuel, to determine our own future rather than remain trade-dependent and policy-vulnerable.
For once, Nigeria is not pleading for imports — it is preparing to export refined products to Africa and beyond. This is more than industrial policy. It is national resurrection.
Bye Bye to Jati Jati — Hello to Refinery-Nation
“Jati jati” economics — the old economy of patronage, of artificial scarcity, of rent extraction — is now being consigned to history. With the tariff and the refinery expansion, the message is clear: The era of import-dependence is over. The era of refinery-nation begins.
DAPPMAN’s import oligarchs can lament, but the game is up. The subsidy fat-cats can gnash their teeth — but the pipeline of production is moving. PENGASSAN and NUPENG may whine about change — but the change offers them real jobs and real power.
To the architects of the subsidy regime we say: goodbye.
To the builders of Nigeria’s refining future we say: hello.
Final Curtain: The Reform Has Substance, The Vision Has Scale
Yes — the tariff on imports was bold. But when paired with the magnitude of the Dangote expansion it becomes transformative. The tariff is the hand-brake release, the subsidy suicide; the refinery is the engine, the nation’s production heartbeat.
President Tinubu’s reform is not just brave — it is prescient. In one sweep, it restores alignment: policy, industry and labour now march toward a common goal. The question no longer is how much fuel will we import? but how much will we refine? The shift from import meter to refining train is underway.
And so, we close this chapter on the old — and open a new one where Nigeria refines not only oil but its own expectations, not only crude but its own future. Bye bye to the vestiges of subsidy-era fraud. Bye bye to jati jati. The refinery-age is here.
–Dr. Bunmi Awoyemi is a Real Estate Developer and Builder.